The AI Deterrence: India’s Path to Strategic Dominance in Modern Warfare

Written by

Mrityunjay Goswami

Post Date

September 23, 2025

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Building India’s Shield Against Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference

British mathematician I.J. Good, a pioneer in computer technology, predicted that ultra-intelligent machines would be able to develop areas of human intelligence that are currently regarded as specialized. Artificial intelligence is beginning to realize I.J. Good’s vision of future technologies, increasingly dominating various realms of human capability, including war and conflict.

The RAND Corporation’s report, titled “Deterrence in the Age of Thinking Machines,” provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential security implications of AI in deterrence strategies. Integrating AI into numerous facets of deterrence—such as the adversaries’ robust command and control (C2C) systems and the execution of predictive analyses of adversaries’ strike capabilities—significantly influences modern warfare. This transformation strengthens deterrence and alters the dynamics of escalation among nations, especially in conflicts that unfold across multiple regions and locations.

The Ukraine war has shown how AI-enabled systems, such as swarm drones, can be lethal and coercive enough to pressure Russia into making further adjustments to its existing deterrence strategy. The Russian doctrine has emerged as the first operational framework in deterrence, focusing on how artificial intelligence (AI) enabled systems can compel and coerce the deterrent dynamics of a regional conflict into a broader escalation spillover. The ongoing rivalry between the United States and China is evolving into the military AI domain, with both nations adapting and integrating AI as a tool for future wars and conflicts. For example, the new American deterrence strategy, “integrated deterrence,” promotes a comprehensive approach to establishing strong deterrence against multiple adversaries.

The “United States’ integrationist “approach advocates incorporating “all means of national power,” America’s artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies, into America’s deterrent framework. Engaging in a prolonged conflict within an integrated domain, enhanced by military AI, forms the foundation of the transformation within the US force projection. For instance, the Trump administration’s approval of an upgraded deterrence and coercion platform against adversaries, such as the ‘Golden Dome Missile Defence System ,’ aims to disrupt adversaries’ radar capabilities and ballistic missile systems enabled through AI means and operatives.

These technologies comprise multiple components, primarily aimed at integrating AI with Command and Control (C2C) structures, facilitating rational decision-making, and enabling rapid responses without delays. The incorporation of AI into the deterrence framework introduces various threats. For instance, the recent Tom Cruise film “Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning” illustrates potential scenarios in which predictive AI could be turned against its own systems. Additionally, rogue malware and data deficiencies in C2C systems are susceptible to unintended escalation and strategic miscalculation. The absence of a unified global stance on military AI is fueling a rise in the spread of strategic and non-strategic arms across nations. This lack of consensus escalates the arms race, creating a more unpredictable and potentially dangerous international landscape. India’s

The Necessity of AI-Enabled Integrated Deterrence for India

India’s recent four-day conflict with Pakistan highlights the critical importance of integrating artificial intelligence into its deterrence framework. The skirmish with Pakistan in May 2025 demonstrated how AI-enabled systems, including autonomous weapons, radar sensors, and threat modelling, can effectively minimize civilian and military casualties in India. AI-integrated drones, developed by private companies, showcased India’s ability to leverage AI in warfare against adversaries, potentially allowing for navigation of the escalation ladder beneath nuclear thresholds.

India has begun integrating AI systems within its operational strategies in line with global military trends. The concept ofcivil-military fusion, envisioned by former Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and former Chief of Defence Staff General Vipin Rawat, has paved the way for enhanced collaboration between civil and military sectors in preparation for future conflicts. Since 2018, the Indian Government has implemented various policy measures, including establishing the Defence AI Council and the Defence AI Project (DAIPA), to advance AI usage across multiple aspects of India’s deterrent posture. Furthermore, alongside the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO), the private sector has expressed significant interest in developing indigenous AI-enabled platforms to strengthen India’s integrated deterrence strategy. The aim is to build a robust mechanism for AI-driven solutions of better command and control systems, fueling innovation under platforms like Idex (Innovation for Defence India) to leverage the military AI race. However, the challenges in India’s multi-domain AI integration are structural and procedural.

The structural and procedural aspects underscore the limited participation of the private sector in several facets of the new military AI strategy. There is a lack of a robust defence-industrial base for computational testing and military AI modelling, as well as limited competitiveness compared to foreign firms and agencies, which hinders the advancement of innovation and the quality of military AI platforms.

However, with the emerging development of integrated AI systems and investments from the Indian government sectors in India’s growing Defence Industrial Base, India’s pursuit of dominance in military AI is not merely a distant aspiration. Although there is enthusiasm from both public and private sectors to position India as a leader in military AI, stakeholders must prepare for India’s future challenges and structural deficiencies, which are capable of halting India’s AI-enabled defence framework.

The Possible Actions

Both horizontal and vertical adaptations are necessary to effectively leverage India’s position in integrating AI within its deterrence strategy. At the policy level, an India-centric AI policy for deterrence should be adopted on the lines of India’s nuclear doctrine. This posture emphasizes the incorporation of AI, Agentic AI, and future AGI into India’s

Command&Control (C2C) structure. Concurrently, India should prioritise modernising its existing command and control structure and support systems to enhance AI simulations and avoid human-driven errors and miscalculations. Such advancements will facilitate the seamless integration of AI into strategic decision-making processes, minimizing the risk of malfunctions during critical situations.

In the long term, AI modernisation will contribute to a robust integrated deterrence framework, transitioning from a platform-centric approach to one emphasising synergised net-centricity. By aligning capabilities in Command, Control, Communication, Computing, Interoperability, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) with AI-enhanced Common User Networks (CUN), Command Inter-Communication Networks (CICN), and Tactical Communication Systems (TCS), India can effectively structure AI-based multi-domain deterrence.

Moreover, beyond the C2C level, the government should engage with private vendors for joint development of AI-powered autonomous weapon systems, thereby reducing latency in counter-retaliatory measures. On the diplomatic front, the Indian government should advocate for an AI weapons system non-proliferation initiative with strategic partners countries, on the lines of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. By doing so, India can solidify its role as a key player in global military AI innovation, in conjunction with the US and China. While at the strategic front in war, it is crucial to maintain open strategic communications with adversaries to minimise the risk of miscalculations, particularly those arising from cyber-espionage targeting centralised C2C systems, which could adversely affect human decision-making during conflicts.

Conclusion

Artificial Intelligence is redefining the rules of engagement across various domains, from establishing large data centres to developing new generations of weapon systems. Russia’s recent Ukrainian strikes have showcased the lethal capabilities of AI-powered platforms in degrading Russia’s strategic assets. AI drones and precision weapons have successfully targeted fleets of Tu-95 strategic bombers, raising concerns that Delhi’s simultaneous presentation of opportunities for major military forces around the globe to explore military applications of AI.

Major powers, including India, are increasingly integrating AI into their deterrent framework, working at both the deterrence and action levels. From India’s security perspective, military AI has the potential to enhance its deterrence capabilities significantly. It would improve India’s manoeuvrability in the evolving warfare landscape, often called ”on-contact ” warfare. Consequently, creating an ecosystem that facilitates effective AI integration within India’s deterrence framework is essential. This entails channelling private investments alongside public sector enterprises and building partnerships with strategic allies like the United States. Modernization and adapting civil and military AI are vital to enhancing India’s overall deterrence posture.